Dare we look at the data?

Yesterday I looked at the dismal situation in public schools just a little bit. We see the   When looking at our school system we could look at the data from, say, the past sixty years.  That might be painful if we would look at ALL the data.  I said ysterday, among other things, “normally we tear down and build new.”.  Sometimes our new buildings are better, sometimes worse in one or more ways.  The issue is that we humans tend to fix only a few things.

• The “back to the 3Rs” folks want to fix content.  
• The technology folks want better technology.
• Others want better prepared teachers.
• Others want to relegate special needs kids to schools just for them.
• Yet others want the special needs kids mainstreamed with all the other kids.
• Some want sports to be downplayed or eliminated.
• Others want the arts downplayed or eliminated.

Isn’t that interesting?  

Experienced folks want to look at all the above and the need to teach people to think, and think critically.  Others demand accountability at all levels, including the parents or home situation.  Many of the oligarchy (the ultra-rich who run the country) would like advanced education only available to the worthy (usually meaning their own sons and daughters).  
I contend that the data shows that none of these approaches work.  But all of these concerns must be addressed intelligently, based on data and not merely anecdotal evidence.  Plus many more concerns as well.

The data?  Yes, the data that shows that whenever one or two of the above approaches is tried, it fails.  There is no magic bullet that, once fired accurately will fix the school system once and for all.  (We’ll examine “once and for all” tomorrow.)

Some other part of the system fouls up the fix when only one or two things are fixed.  Don’t believe me?  Check our history since, say, 1950.  We have fixed lots of onesies and twosies.  Nothing has stayed fixed, and in many cases things got worse.  And we have not addressed the issue of funding yet.

Thinking, and checking the data, and thinking critically, and referring to the data again and again and again suggests the only set of processes that could fix our current system, or even invent one that works for all the public. 

But We're Americans!

Talking about schools I was reminded that the American way is not to rebuild, restructure or reform.  Oh, we give lip service to those ideas, but normally we tear down and build new.  Or sell to some lower income person or group, and build new.  

In other words, we might be able to fix our public schools if we had the will.  Intelligent, sensitive plans could be drawn up that would permit people to be held accountable at every level, from the School Board through the Superintendent, principal(s), teachers and teachers aides.  One example:  every teach should have a published rubric for every lesson and assignment.  Failure to do so would mean he/she would have to find another profession.  Each school board member could be held accountable for bringing certain decorum, intelligence, training, and sensitivity to every board meeting.  Superintendents would be held accountable for both fiscal skills and the quality at every level of the teaching learning environment.  And so forth.

But, you say, we can’t do that!  We might curtail academic freedom!!  With intelligent planning we might not, too.  But what about tenure?  Why have tenure if there are other ways of guaranteeing academic freedom to explore all aspects of thinking?  Tenure has become, in most schools, a way of protecting the lazy, the non-productive and the inadequate.  (I know of one preschool teacher who has been having her students to the same drills for 5 months now, stifling the quest for learning and growth in most or all of the 5 year olds in her charge.  Tenure helps her, but damages her students, and there is no process by which she is being help accountable at this time.) 
So, in the way that we do, we are in the process of abandoning our current failing public school systems and inventing charter schools, evangelical schools, magnet schools and so forth.  Don't repair, we seem to say.  Build new.

We are Americans.  As the General Custer character yells in the film, Night At the Museum “We’re Americans! We don’t plan!”

More tomorrow.  Happy New Year to you and yours. 

It comes back to data. A useful question helps, too.

“Which is the oldest language in the world?  Hebrew or Greek?”

“That’s a good question.  Neither is the oldest.  Certainly Egyptian in one form or another is older.  Abraham came from Sumeria, and headed for Canaan speaking some form of the Sumerian Language.  Possibly Hebrew came into being when the Abraham family were slaves in Egypt and were combining what they already spoke (some form of Sumerian plus one or more Canaanite dialects with what the Egyptians were saying.”

So went a Christmas conversation.  The answer is both correct (‘Neither”) and incorrect.  According to Answers.com (http://wiki.answers.com/Q/What_is_the_world's_oldest_language) Sanskrit predates all other known languages.  

On the other hand, Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_languages_by_first_written_accounts) asserts that Sumerian is the oldest written language.  

Buzzle.com suggests Mandarin (http://www.buzzle.com/articles/oldest-language-in-the-world.html).  

Searching for answers I find a lot of “I believe” answers -- but inadequate data.  Truth be told, we really don’t know.  There are sign languages that may be older than spoken and written languages.  In fact, to answer the question the person asking must constraing the quesion.  What is a language?  Written?  Spoken?  Sign?  Musical tones?  

It comes back to a usefully worded question and working with integrity with such data as we have.  In this case, we may not have definitive data. 

The Data and the Hype - 2

According to Karen Spears Zacharias author of Will Jesus Buy Me a Double-Wide Trailer (Cause I Need More Room For My Plasma TV a very high percentage of Americans who identify with the Christian faith believe that God owes them financial prosperity and that all they have to do is believe, adjust their attitudes, claim the promises or some such thing.  They can, with right thinking, become money magnets.

What is the data?  What does the data say?

If you are one such person, are you getting wealthier every month?  Every week?  Every day?

Oh, maybe you don’t have faith?  Maybe you haven’t tithed to the correct TV preacher.  Perhaps you simply are not magnetic enough.  

Note that out of all the followers of the TV hucksters of this teaching, very few are getting richer.  Most of those who can point to an increase in income over the past ten years would have gotten those automatic raises anyway.  

Always look for data.  Consistent, repeatable results will follow consistent, repeatable data.  

The myths, dreams and hopes which sustain us cannot change reality.  The data is the data.  Or, as some would have it, the data are the data. 

The data and the Hype - 1

In the absence of data almost any idea will fly.  Examine, if you will, the idea that if you truly have faith, you either a)  won’t every get sick, or b) will be healed when you ask or demand that you be healed.  

Once in awhile someone prays and is healed.  Or someone prays for another person, and the other person gets better.  Once in awhile.  

More often, a person prays and does not get healed, or prays for someone else and the someone else dies.  Way, way more often.  

That’s the data.  

What about faith?  Are these people generally not people of faith?  Jesus’ disciples were said to have healed people and to have ‘cast out demons’.  Yet, according to the Gospel of Mark, they were mostly doubters, mostly people who misunderstood Jesus most of the time.  How come they could pullit off with such inferior faith and most people of faith cannot reliably and consistently pray and get healing to happen?

Or, let’s look at being a magnet for wealth.  What is the data there?  Tune in for the next blog entry. 

Critical Thinking 4

I used to bother people by asking them to come into the church building and pass by the box just outside the door.  You know the invisible box -- the one so many people put their brains into.  Mostly they seemed to pick their brains up on the way out and use them to shop, acquire stuff and money, and generally survive.  But when it came time to do whatever they were going to do in the church building they left their brains outside (it seemed).

I think it is worse today.  And not just for Christian religiounists.  Muslim religionists, Hindu religionists, agnostic religionists, new age religionists -- people who get all goose-bumpy when something sentimental or seemingly religious comes up seem to quit thinking critically.  In fact, they seem to believe that thinking is obscene, an affront to whatever god they worship or avoid.

How strange.  If we believe we are created, then the best part of ourselves is probably our brain.  More stuff goes on per cubic centimeter within the brain than within any other part of our body.  And at speeds that we cannot begin to comprehend unless we think carefully about it.  So, why would the creator be offended if we use this most amazing part of what has been created?

(Agnostics -- why would whatever evolved you be bothered if you used the most dense, most useful organ with the most potential?)

To approach faith, even faith that we should not have faith, with a mind that thinks critically, that seeks data at all points, that explores carefully without prejudging what is within limits or outside limits quietly honors whatever process brought a person into being.  Creation by Word, creation by evolution, creation by questioning, creation by debate between good and evil -- however we came to be, we honor our becoming by thinking, thinking carefully, thinking often, and thinking again. 

Our duty to think skeptically

The preacher spoke about the experience of Zechariah when an angel spoke to him and said he and Elizabeth would have a baby.  As do most preachers he was ‘amazed’ at Zechariah’ skeptical response.  But wait a moment. . .

Even more than today there were way too many messiah-peddlers, god-peddlers. and general charlatans.  Zechariah was properly skeptical.  And so should you be.  So should I be.  So should the manic mom, or depressed mom, who believes she hears God telling her to kill her children.  So should the impoverished inner-city kid who is told that God wants him to blow himself and several hundred others to smithereens in the name of Allah.  

God created us with brains.  Or, we evolved into thinking beings.  In either case, we have a duty to learn to use them, use them well, and check with others.  We have a duty to be critical thinkers.  (This applies to the way we respond to marketing appeals, advertising, political ads of all parties and even our kid’s excuses for not doing their homework.)  THINK!  Then Think some more. 

The Saddest Hypocrite

The Chinese Government does not want its citizens to know about The Chinese winner of the Nobel Peace Prize.  The US Givernment does not want its citizens to know about their pretty much discretionary diplomatic stuff.  E.g., both hide stuff from their citizens.  But there is a difference.

The Chinese do not profess to be a free and open society.  The U.S. does.  Hmmm.

Which government is the most hypocritical? 

Magical Thinking - phase 2

I have spent many thousands of dollars and many hundreds of hours learning to invest wisely.  In spite of that, I lose money as well as make money.  The amounts come close to balancing, but I must confess, in the past year or so they tipped towards the losing side.  I’m not alone.

The problem is partly “magical thinking”.  A byword in the training I experienced is that the market is mostly based on emotion.  In the fat years, even when the market moved down, or when a company’s fundamentals were poor, people (including those folks responsible for billions of dollars of investments) would say, “Oh, I’m bullish on the market.”  And often the market would go up again.  

But what was the data?  The data was that most stocks were oversold, and most stocks were overvalued.  So, when the market began to adjust (as it does) and then to crash (read nasty gambles by mortgage companies and big financial institutions), many of the magical thinkers kept saying, “But we are bullish here in the office,” or words to that extent.  I quizzed one such financial advisor and come to find out, he did not know how to gather the data for himself.  He relied soley on magical thinking.

Now the market has risen a slight bit in the past year.  The data says we should rise a bit more.  Insurance companies, among others, have more cash reserves than ever.  But every time there is a slight downtic in the market the fearful, the folks who got burned, are saying (ro thinking) “But it’s a bear market.”  Again, they are not checking the data.  

Note:  it is probably a neutral, or stagnating, market right now with the potential to go either way based on emotion and magical thinking.

Learning to think critically by being detached, basing thoughts on data, reading all the signals is essential to clarity and even to doing reasonably well in the financial market.  More importantly, in the market place of life critical thinking is required (unless you get very, very lucky all the time). 

Critical Thinking 3

What if, in my attempt to think critically, I come to flawed conclusions?  How bad is that?

Well, if I detach, and let the data speak, I can adopt the attitude of Thomas A. Edison.  “I have found 1,000 ways NOT to build a lightbulb,” to paraphrase his comment at a thousand flawed conclusions.  In other words, all is not lost.  I continue thinking, I continue searching, and researching.  

A teacher asks, “Do I have the right to teach children badly 1,000 times?”

No.  That’s why we have books.  Many people have tried the inadequate methods and failed.  If we read the research, master the research, we can do so in a compatively short time.  The teacher now knows a thousand ways not to teach to that age group, children or adults in that stage of development.  We stand, as they say, on the shoulders of others.  

What if our cherished way of teaching has been proven to be 80% ineffective.  You know, the 
     “Ram it in, cram it in, children’s heads are hollow.
       Ram it in, cram it in, there’s lot’s more to follow”
approach.  

If we detach (even from our left wing or right wing ideology) and look at data, we can come up with a better set of approaches to this gorup of students at this stage of development.  Down with politics!  Down with the established old guard way of failing to teach!  Down with parental indifference and interference!

Up with carefully thought out approaches that avoid flawed methods and embrace promising methods, especially those that have demonstrated success with students like the ones I’m teaching. 

Critical Thinking 2

Another factor in critical thinking includes data.  Data drives critical thinking.  

Our pastor was answering questions during his message today, and was asked the question, “How can we know that [verse in Isaiah] is true?”  

He responded, “Because all the other things Isaiah said have come true.”

Detach, Al.  What are the data?  The data, if you read all 66 chapters in the Biblical book of Isaiah, says that only a few things in this book have come true.  Further, the data demonstrate that there are probably at least three different time periods in which this book was authored, suggesting either an author who lived several hundred years or three or more different authors.  So, which author are we to believe?  All of them?  Only one as the primary spokesperson?  None?  


Should we believe but for different reasons than that which the speaker gave?



Sadly there is no future in pointing this out.  If offends the belief system of too many people.  But to listen to a talk and think critically means one has to examine the data after detaching as best one can from the closed system espoused by the speaker.  

Gladly, we detach, and examine data.  We grow.  We live better and make more useful contributions to those around us. 

Critical Thinking - 1

We were talking about critical thinking.  What is it?  How do we describe it?  How can it be taught.  As we gabbed, one thing seemed to become clear:  a person must be able to detach to some extent.  

When you can detach, you can look at anything -- any relationship, any belief, any tradition, any data -- and think about it.  Suppose you get some feedback that you believe to be unfair, rude, or simply a pack of lies.

If you can detach, not always easy to do when your ego and emotions are involved, you can look at it.  You might seek the help of a relatively disinterested party to help you.  You might come up with these possibilities:

• I could learn this from the feedback
• Some people are working out their emotions by attacking me
• The person who said that missed the point altogether
• I must communicate more clearly, and stress the same thing more times but in different ways
• I communicated well - I cannot make others learn.  That is their responsibility

Without detachment, a person can only agree or disagree, and maybe only get caught up in emotions.  With detachment I might discern subtle possibilities, and come closer to truth as it applies in this situation.

Taking Down Trees

I will have two large cottonwood trees taken down next week, weather permitting.  My mother-in-law had a large fir tree taken down a few weeks ago.  In a world where we should be working to enhance tree growth, taking trees down seems counter-intuitive.  But it is not.

Trees are living organisms, and as such have their own march towards death just as humans do.  In the case of the cottonwoods, they are nearing that point where they could break, fall on the house, fall on a grandchild, or fall on the neighbor’s house.  I don’t want that and am taking steps to prevent it.  I want to act responsibly.  

My mother-in-law’s fir tree was also beautiful.  But it had shallow roots, and given the soggy winters they have suffered in recent years, and given the intense winds they have experienced, it made sense to take it down carefully rather than have it fall down on her house.  

Not only do we both have other trees, we plant trees from time to time.  I saw the cottonwoods about to end their lives several years ago and planted trees between them to “fill in” when they are gone.  My thinking is to act responsibily in both removing hazards and planting for the future so that carbon dioxide is converted into oxygen, shade is provided, and the neighborhood continues to look good.  

Do you think ahead?  Do you plan to avert problems before they take their toll?  No everyone does, and I take my share of ribbing for thinking this way.  So?  It serves me well, and serves my neighbors and friends well too.  I’ll keep thinking this way. 

Worthy Books for Thinking Along with Al

Our family are readers.  Let me share two very different books that will sharpen both your thinking and your feeling.  We cannot do without either.

“mockingbird” by Kathryn Ersking (Philomel Books) may be a quick read.  Or not.  It really, really helps us feel AND think.  “Escape” by Robert K. Tannenbaum begins with a horrific scene, vital to the rest of the book.  The theme is set, and the question the theme poses continues to the last page.  Email me with your response.  I will share my thoughts with you if you do.

Why the furor over WikiLeaks?

What does it cost to be embarrassed?  

I don’t remember being embarrassed in grade school when I was called on.  But what a different story when I had to present a book report in front of the class.  One book report in particular had the class looking at me like I was crazy.  I loved the book, but my classmates didn’t love me.  I was embarrassed!  

It didn’t kill me.

The embarrassment felt by politicians and diplomats won’t kill them.  What’s with the world-wide man-hunt for the WikiLeaks guy, when a major Bush administration figure was not imprisoned for “outing” Valerie Plame?  He wasn’t embarrassed at all, and there were lives at stake, lives lost.  

The Russians are appalled that some Americans don’t think well of them.  Suck it up.  Some Russians don’t think well of Americans.  Big deal!  

Could it be that the furor over WikiLeaks is covering for ineptness or even crimes being committed that could enrage we the people? 

Leaks -- stupid secrecy

Another wonder that impresses me about the WikiLeaks experience is the vicious stupidity used by people in our government.  OUR government.  They classify nearly everything as “secret”, and a “threat to national security”.  Since when has being embarrassed been a national security issue?

Remember -- the WkiLeaks folks and the N.Y.Times folks gave the State Department an chance to weed out anything damaging before they printed the material.  Our State Department couldn’t be bothered, but Ms. Clinton and Mr. Holder can be bothered to plan criminal prosecution of the man who exposed these embarrassing secrets.  

I wonder . . . is this another sign of the drift towards a police state?  a facist style of governance, espoused by both major parties?  If so, I don’t like it.

Don’t get me wrong.  Most other countries in the world are in worse shape than we are.  But we need to be aware.  Leading the world towards freedom won’t happen if we let them lead us towards secrecy where none is needed.  None is needed if we are only protecting people who put their foot in the mouth.  Really. 

Secrets I would Like to See Leaked - Part One

What secrets would I like to see revealed that the government keeps under lock and key?

1. I wonder who is “running” Barak Obama?  He has way more intelligence and drive than he has shown in the first two hears of his term.  He has maintained the nastiest facist-like trapping of the previous administration.  So, who is really running our country?
2. I wonder who handled, managed and dictated to George W. Bush.  There have been hints that he actually is a decent human being who can, on occasion, think.  But his administration, while gathering power unto themselves, did most things badly, and moved us towards a facist state as well as a bankrupt state, more quickly than any government of a major country since Adolph Hitler.  (That is not a compliment!)  I don’t think that was his intention, but someone was pushing him that way.
3. I wonder who decided that war with Iraq was a higher priority than catching Osama bin Laden (whose family are friends of the Bush family).  I also wonder who in our vast government decided to go along with that set of priorities.
4. I wonder why the Federal government has not arrested the major players in the big financial institutions who created this vast recession.  What protects them, when poor and middle class people who disturb the peace get arrested (and if they are black, serve jail time).  

What secrets is our government keeping you would like to see leaked?

Leaks Part 1

WikiLeaks has begun releasing a ton of “secret” documents hidden by the USA.  Why is that a big deal?

Think it over a moment.  The USA has made it clear that it has every right to invade the privacy of not only American citizens, but people throughout the world.  From NSA monitoring of telephone conversations to TSA tickling your crotch at the airport this “government of the people, for the people and by the people” assumes the right to invade our privacy.

Fair’s fair.

Why should we not invade their privacy?  The WikiLeaks founder has been careful to avoid leaking anything that would put someone in physical harm (unlike the conservative Bushie who “outed” Ms. Valerie Plame resulting in harm and death being visited on her network of intelligence agents.  That’s an irony given the conservative howls about merely embarassing disclosures being made today.

See my next posting for secrets I am still waiting to see disclosed.

Thinking With Al - beginning

I plan to share thoughts with you as I have elsewhere in the past.  I plan not to cross the line into mere political opinion or faddish harangues.  Rather, I hope to examine ideas thoughtfully and provoke my readers, if any, to think bigger, to think realistically, to think using data while searching for more data.  More data may change all of our thinking. 

What a concept.  Let's do it!